Ukraine President's efforts in Lithuania fail to secure NATO membership | WION
Ukraine President's efforts in Lithuania fail to secure NATO membership | WION
Susan Tehrani, interview with Gilbert Doctorow
June 12, 2023
Transcript (Excerpt)
Susan Tehran:
For more on this, we are now being joined by Dr. Gilbert Doctorow from St Petersburg. Doctorow is an international affairs analyst. Thank you so much for joining us on weon and welcome back. It seems a little premature for Ukraine to ask to join NATO when it is in the middle of a war with Russia. What are your thoughts?
Gilbert Doctorow:
It is not in the middle of a war with Russia. It is close to the end of a war with Russia – a war that is losing.
Today's announcements by Stoltenberg and by others at the NATO meeting in Vilnius make fools of commentators at CNN or Euro News. But they shouldn't fool your audience. The fact is, that the counter-offensive that received massive support in equipment and training from NATO countries, that Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed miserably. The latest figures that we have is that 26.000 Ukrainian soldiers and officers were killed or taken out of action on the counter-offensive against Russia in the last 30 days. They have lost hundreds of tanks. They have lost most of the advanced military equipment supplied to them by NATO countries in the preceding weeks.
Mr. Zelensky may have used his opportunity as a speaker in the NATO meeting to berate NATO for not taking him in. But the fact is, the precondition for any admittance to Nato was, that he would have had a successful counter-offensive, using the vast resources he had been given to effect. He didn't. In fact, as of yesterday the Russians have now gone on a counter counter-offensive and they have in one day taken on one of the fronts one and a half kilometers of territory that was held by Mr. Zelensky's forces. This despite the fact that in the preceding 30 days of Ukraine's counter-offensive they moved a few meters here and there forward. So the result is a disastrous Ukrainian counter-offensive they started and a new offensive by the Russians and the Ukrainian manpower reserves are depleted. The West can supply all of the equipment he wishes to Ukraine, but Ukraine no longer has the manpower to use it and to wage a successful war.
In recent days we understand that the United States is giving little signals that it is going to push Ukraine into negotiations with Russia to end the war. The signals came from Jake Sullivan speaking to reporters when he accompanied Biden on his way to Europe for the meeting in Vilnius. It was an unequivocal: For the first time in months, Russia was not spoken of in hostile terms. President Putin was not reviled and cursed. They were taken in very neutral language about Russia, which is the purest, the most obvious signal that the United States is ready to negotiate. And that is the end of the whole issue.
Negotiations for as far as Russia is concerned mean one thing. Territorial boundaries are not the important issue. Ukraine becoming neutral! It is no longer not only have no NATO alliance, but it is on its inability to maintain any foreign troops or institutions on its territory. That will be the non-negotiable Russian demand for any peace and with that NATO goes out the window.
Susan Tehran:
Yeah, well, uh, we'll see whether NATO goes out the window or not. We'll be watching very closely. But I just want to follow up on what you were saying. It is very interesting to read between the lines also for the one fact that we never hear NATO or the United States talk about Ukraine's victory, moving forward. They usually talk about how even providing weapons ultimately is so Ukraine would have the upper hand in negotiations with Russia and now we hear that the United States wants to provide cluster munitions and then there is that deal with the F-16s. We'll see where that goes. So can you talk about that? Do you think that with everything that Ukraine has it will be in a better position to negotiate with Russia not to mention the fact that Ukraine says that Russia needs to pull out all of its troops from Ukraine including Crimea?
Gilbert Doctorow:
Well, Ukraine entered into the counter-attack under massive pressure from the United States and other NATO countries to prove that their investment in Ukraine was justified. But today and for that reason they proceeded prematurely in a counter offensive, so to speak, when they had no air cover. According to all normal military doctrine that was fated to fail. To do what they wanted to do, you have to have air cover. They didn't have it. And to say that they're going to get F-16s in early next year… There won't be an Ukraine to talk about in the early next year, if this war continues. The Russians will continue moving until they reach the Polish border unless the Ukrainians agree to be a neutral country without NATO.
But let us turn to one other question that came up in your introduction to this interview and that was Mr. Zelensky speaking with great gratitude that the various NATO members are going to give bilateral security agreements to protect Ukraine. This is a substitute for NATO.
Let's be clear about one thing: The United States cannot do that. The United States Congress will not approve giving security guarantees to Ukraine and without the United States giving the security a guarantee, all of the other member countries of NATO or outside of NATO in the G7 who may want to give security guarantees to Ukraine – they are worthless. It is only the American guarantee, that has any validity and the United States absolutely will not and cannot give such a guarantee.
Susan Tehran:
Mr. Doctorow, thank you so much for joining us and for your thorough insight on the situation. I look forward to speaking to you again very soon and of course we'll be watching these developments very closely.
Gilbert Doctorow:
My pleasure. Thanks for having me.